Bait North Korea

The North Koreans are beating their chests so hard I fear an implosion of their torsos.

Yeah yeah, many analysts are saying this most recent barrage of bullshit coming from North Korea is due in large part to a succession issue regarding the youngest son of the Kim dictactor.

None of that matters.

What matters is a North Korea that has the capacity to drop, or launch, a nuclear weapon at either its neighbors or us, the United States of America.

I feel that the current U.S. administration is pursuing a policy of baiting the North into firing the first shot into what would end up being a war to unify the peninsula under South Korean leadership.

The main way in which this baiting would be done, I feel, is through the now-intensified interdiction program established by the most recent UN resolution in which ships from or to North Korea must be searched and detained if any nuclear or missile material is found (Signed even by China and Russia, but their stipulation was that the boarding and searching of such vessels must be voluntary by the captain of whatever ship we’re trying to search).

As it stands now, Obama has already said he would not longer reward North Korean belligerency only to face the same situation months later, whenever the food or fuel or whatever we gave to them the first time runs out.

In fact, the Obama administration has said that if containment via the interdiction of cargo and sanctions does not work, then the U.S. would adopt an “offensive, defensive posture” toward the North. 

If the North ends up firing the first shot, either at our navy or our allies in the region, then a determined coalition could be formed, similiar to that established prior to the First Gulf War.

I mean, seriously, if we’re not trying to bait them into firing the first shot, then what the fuck is our strategy? Are we waiting for the regime to collapse under the weight of more sanctions? Well, it’s been over eight years and that hasn’t happened; the elite of North Korea are apparently plenty content with watching their populace starve to death.

So then what is it? Is the American gameplan to wait until the North acquires or develops the necessary technology to concentrate their nuclear materials into bomb/missile format? Are we waiting for them to develop a viable delivery system?

That would be wonderful, because once the North has these things, it’s pretty much game over: Any conflict with them would amount to at least one, probably more, nuclear detonations against their enemies, and likewise mass nuclear detonation against the North. Why?

Why take this path when we can stop them now?

And don’t spout any of this bullshit about how we’re over-stretched militarily. For shit’s sake, we have the entire Pacific Fleet, on top of however many air bases in Japan and South Korea.

I still think Obama should have authorized the destruction of the North Korean long-range rocket while it was still fueling on it’s launch pad a couple of months ago. That would have sent a very strong message to the entire world: Don’t fuck with Obama.

Sure, it may have started a war, a war in which we would win, most likely, and there you go, no more Kim-led North Korean nuclear bullshit to worry about.

The North does not focus on their crushing defeat in the Korean War by American forces (They were thoroughly trounced and had it not been for massive Chinese and limited Soviet intervention, would have remained the conquered, thus unifying the peninsula under a Democratic government in the 1950s), rather they focus on, and teach their young, the series of faux pas made by the United States since the Korean war regarding the handling of certain incidents.

One of which occured in 1969 when North Korean warplanes shot down a Navy EC-121 surveillance plane and killed all 31 Americans aboard.

In 2003, a group of North Korean warplanes shadowed an American spy plane flying in international airspace over the Sea of Japan and came within 50 feet of the American craft. They followed it for over 20 minutes before breaking off.

Incidents such as these are drilled into the minds of the North Korean citizenry (Who are unable to access any outside media outlets) as proof that not only is the United States out to get North Korea (Which we are, but only because the Kims are fucking lunatics who have a score to settle with their neighbors and us that stem from not only the Korean War but also World War II), but that we are also weak and incapable of a forceful response to such provocations.

It has become increasingly clear amongst analysts and North Korean experts that the North has now concluded that it is in their best strategic interests to continue their nuclear and ballistic missile programs and that the benefits from mastering these things far outweighs anything they may receive by bargaining them away in the Six-Party talks.

Now, regarding an attack against North Korea – their military is strong on paper (Million-man army, over 4,000 tanks, 13,000 artillery pieces, etc.), but how would it hold up against prolonged American bombardment? I mean, how would their bottom of the barrel grunt hold up?

Keep in mind, none of these young soldiers, who make up the vast majority of the North Korean military, have ever been in a war, let alone a sustained bomb/missile/artillery barrage from land, sea and air.

I’m sure many of their highest ranking generals have, veterans of the Korean War, but their fighters have never seen war. Ours have.

The only thing holding the North Korean regime intact, and I repeat, the only thing, is their strong emphasis on the military (It is, after all, a military state.) Their economy is almost non-existent – if it wasn’t for grain donations given to them by China and South Korea they wouldn’t even have enough men to be in their army.

If their military infrastructure collapses, so does the state. And this can be said, to a certain degree, about any nation-state, but North Korea stands at the pinnacle of exemplifying this.

An associate of mine pointed out that regardless of whether they’ve ever seen combat, the isolation from international outlets combined with the brainwashing they’ve undergone would make them fight like fanatics.

Plausible, I suppose, but unlikely.

A counter-argument that outweighs this line of thinking is what would override the other: A fanatical desire to “defend Dear Leader against the imperialistic, evil Americans,” or an astoundingly abrupt, severe mental break due to an appalling, unrelenting bombardment?

I believe that the terror they would undergo during such a bombing (And I’m talking at least a month or more before ground forces, South Korean and, if necessary, American, go in) would take precedence over whatever brainwashing they’ve received.

Anyone who has been in intense combat or has studied the affects of prolonged combat on the human psyche will tell you that fear spreads through an army like an outbreak of flu – from one man in a platoon planting seeds of terror in his comrades to a battalion watching another battalion flee in horror amidst the earth heaving with fire and debris – fear and uncertainty bring an army down.

And as stated above, once their army cracks, the state collapses.

And at this point enters the big question: China.

China does not want North Korean refugees pouring in the millions across their shared border. The Chinese do not want Korean blood mingling with Chinese blood via sexual intercourse. The Chinese want to maintain their blood purity, as their leaders see it.

And not only this, a massive influx of terrified hoards of North Koreans could destabilize an already shaky domestic situation in China regarding the brunt of their masses already consumed by dirt-level poverty.

The Chinese poured a massive army into North Korea in the Korean War because they didn’t want the “imperialist Americans” sitting on their border. They were under the impression that our goal was not to unify the Korean Peninsula, but rather to use it as a jumping off point to attack China.

But things have changed dramatically in the past half-century, and I don’t think China would risk getting into a confrontation with the U.S. again over Kim’s North Korea – they have too much to lose now.

I’ve long floated the idea that the Chinese government uses North Korea as a semi-proxy of sorts, giving them the go-ahead to do these belligerent, outrageous things in order to gauge American response while not being on the receiving end of it. After all, it suits the Chinese well to have a completely dependent, autocratic military state sitting as a buffer region on their border.

But after the recent outbursts coming out of the North these past few months, along with the subsequent series of angry articles directed at the North written by Chinese scholars who, in the past, would always write out against any kind of tough talk made by the Chinese government toward the North, it seems the Chinese are finally getting fed up.

So unless this is some kind of very elaborate ruse, it seems that perhaps the Chinese aren’t using the North as a proxy or, if they were, then perhaps the proxy has thrown off the loose reigns of Chinese guidance and has gone berserk – a monster unleashed kind of deal.

China, putting their reputation on the line, assured the United States years ago, along with the international community, that Chinese-led diplomacy would solve the North Korean nuclear issue. Now the Chinese are embarrassed and pissed off.

Time will tell the outcome of the North Korean issue; but I feel if we don’t act soon, we’ll be caught in a qaundary against a backwards nuclear-armed state making outrageous demands, and threatening nuclear war against any who opposes them.

 

juice

Rebuttal of Pro-Hezbollah, Pro-Hamas Posters

The following is a rebuttal of claims made on another blog (link below) in which the author, and those leaving comments, declare as fact that Hezbollah and Hamas do not and have not under any circumstances used civilian shields/infrastructure in carrying out their military operations; particularly in the 2006 Lebanon War.

http://pulsemedia.org/2009/04/28/hiding-behind-civilians/

My response:

The things I reported of here come from years of newspaper and online reading. To think that I have all of these resources in front of me, or bookmarked, is ridiculous.

Nonetheless, I will present some source material, per request, to substantiate what I have written above.

Now, before I present source material, I remember watching an international media conference during the 2006 Lebanon war in which Israel showed imagery captured via satellite of a pick-up truck mounted with a rocket launcher, firing in front of a civilian shelter and then speeding away. Moments later, the shelter was hit by Israeli return-fire.

Your comment regarding the throng of women in Gaza who came to rescue the Hamas fighters who had fled into a mosque, is absurd.

You wrote: “It rates as one of the best and most effective instances of non-violent civil resistance I have seen.”

So, an IDF convoy/patrol comes under ambush by Hamas, who claim so vehemently that they wish to kill Israelis, but when the fighting heats up, they flee into a mosque, and, once surrounded by the IDF, call upon a contingent of the local female population to step into the fray so that they may hide amongst them and escape the battle that they started. Some even dressed in the head-to-toe black garbs they found within the mosque prior to making their dash into the crowd of women.

Non-violent eh? Hamas engaged the IDF in a fire fight. If you’re going to start a fight, then fight. Don’t bring the civilian population into an ambush that you orchestrated and executed.

Regarding the source material below, I am sure you will brush off as nothing more than “Zionist propaganda.”

Excerpts from source reports will be documented below, each with links to the original material.

1) Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center
at the Center for Special Studies (C.S.S), written by a team led by Dr. Reuven Erlich (Col. Ret.):

“This study analyzes two central concepts of Hezbollah’s warfare,
demonstrated during the second Lebanon war (July-August 2006). The first is
the broad use of the Lebanese civilian population as a living shield; the
second, viewing the Israeli civilian population as the primary target for the
enormous rocket arsenal Hezbollah built up over a period of years. Both acts
are considered war crimes under international law.”

“The Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, which is part of the
Center for Special Studies,2 took upon itself to bring before the public
important aspects of the recent war, sifting, verifying, confirming and
compiling information that illustrates Hezbollah’s policies and modus
operandi. The IDF was forced to deal with a terrorist organization, generously
supported by two terrorism-sponsoring states (Iran and Syria), which
constructed a broad military infrastructure within populated areas in south
Lebanon. The organization systematically used local inhabitants as human
shields, cynically endangering their lives and well being.”

“This study examines Hezbollah’s exploitation of Lebanese civilians as
human shields. Hezbollah is a terrorist organization which
constructed a broad, advanced, comprehensive military
infrastructure within densely populated areas of Lebanon.
During the last war Hezbollah used that infrastructure to carry out a
massive series of previously planned rocket attacks against
population centers in Israel.”

“Hezbollah’s long-term plan, which was speeded up when the IDF
withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, was to a construct orderly, organized
military infrastructure within densely populated areas. They
were established in the southern neighborhoods of Beirut
(especially in Harat Hreik, where the organization’s command center is
located), in south Lebanon (especially south of the Litani River, the
heart of its operational infrastructure) and in the Beqa’a Valley
(especially in the region of Baalbek, where its training and logistics
facilities are located).”

“Hezbollah’s main deployments are the following:
a. Offensive: Before the outbreak of the second Lebanon war,
Hezbollah stockpiled an arsenal of more than 20,000 rockets of
various ranges, including long-range rockets capable of reaching
both the north and center of Israel. They were primarily
concentrated in south Lebanon and for the most part kept in
designated storehouses located in civilian structures (private
residences and public institutions) in many towns and villages. That
enabled Hezbollah to wage a long-term campaign against Israel
and to inflict extensive damage on its civilian population. Hezbollah
aspired to create a balance of deterrence with Israel and exploit
it to carry out attacks and encourage terrorism in the Palestinian
Authority-administered territories, and at the same time to
continue building up its military power in Lebanon.
b. Defensive: Hezbollah’s defensive deployment is based on its
military infrastructure south of the Litani River and in the hills
around Nabatiya. Its objective was to enable Hezbollah to conduct
guerilla attacks against the IDF with advanced anti-tank missiles,
engineering forces and well-trained and well-equipped infantry. Its
defensive infrastructure is based on a broad deployment within the
Shi’ite towns and villages south of the Litani River and the intention
to wage determined urban warfare (a concept well-illustrated by
operational plans captured by the IDF during the war). To
6
complement its military infrastructure within populated areas,
Hezbollah also constructed such an infrastructure in non-populated
areas, but its function is secondary in its overall defensive
strategy.”

<This study is huge; read more at below link>

http://www.ajcongress.org/site/PageServer?pagename=secret2

 

2) NGO Monitor:

“Summary:  During the Israel-Hezbollah war in July/August 2006, major NGOs claiming to promote human rights, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch (HRW), published numerous reports primarily condemning Israeli military actions.  The claims were based on “evidence” provided by Lebanese eyewitnesses, whose credibility and links to Hezbollah were not investigated.  The Intelligence and Terrorism Center at the Israeli Center for Special Studies, in conjunction with the American Jewish Congress, has now issued a detailed report on these events.  It provides extensive documentation and photographic evidence of “Hezbollah’s consistent pattern of intentionally placing its fighters and weapons among civilians,” showing that Hezbollah was “well aware of the civilian casualties that would ensue” from this activity.”

“This NGO Monitor report compares the documented evidence presented in the report with HRW’s and Amnesty’s claims.”

“Human Rights Watch Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center Report Discredits HRW’s “Fatal Strikes” Report (August 2006)

HRW’s “Fatal Strikes”
 
Claims HRW “found no cases in which Hezbollah deliberately used civilians as shields to protect them from retaliatory IDF attack.”
 
Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center Report

Shows through images, videos, seized documents, and other evidence that Hezbollah had a deliberate policy of “cynically exploiting the civilian population” by planting its “military infrastructure” within civilian areas.[3]

Specific Instances of Hezbollah Activity in Areas HRW Claims There was No Hezbollah Presence
 
 
“Fatal Strikes”
 
Bint Jbeil: Killing of 4 Civilians on July 15.

HRW eyewitness: “there was no fighting taking place in the village—there was no one but civilians. The civil defense was there to help us [recover the bodies].”
 
Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center Report

20 Bases and 5 Weapons storehouses inside the village are shown in an aerial photograph.[4]
87 rockets fired from within village houses, 109 from within a 200 meter radius of the village, and 136 within a 500 meter radius of the village.[5]
60 regular Hezbollah operatives in the village, including about 15 in charge of storehouses.[6]
Arms, ammunition, and equipment were stored in the village before the war. Some equipment was placed in storehouses; some inside civilian residential buildings.[7]
 
“Fatal Strikes”

Qana: Killing of “at least” 28 civilians on July 30.[8]
 
Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center Report

3 rockets fired from within village houses, 36 within a 200 meter radius, and 106 within a 500 meter radius.[9]
Aerial photograph of weapons storehouse located next to a mosque in the village.[10]
Hezbollah compound in former UN outpost just southwest of Qana.[11] “In Hezbollah’s view, outposts only serve to complement its infrastructure in the villages, perceived as the primary operative system.”[12]

“Fatal Strikes”

Aitaroun: Killing of 16 Civilians, July 16, and 10 civilians, July 17.

HRW eyewitness quotes:
“The positions of the [Hezbollah] resistance are around the village, not inside the village.
“There was no presence of the [Hezbollah] resistance inside the village.”
“To my knowledge, Hezbollah was not operating in the area, but I can’t be 100% sure because we were sleeping.”
 
Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center Report

18 rockets fired from within village houses, 23 within a 200 meter radius, and 54 within a 500 meter radius. [13]
Senior Hezbollah Figure, Nabil Qawouk speaking in Aitaroun at the memorial service for those killed in the village: “The arms are in the villages and towns on south Lebanon, but they are invisible.”[14]
 
“Fatal Strikes”

Dibbin (near Marja’youn): Killing of three civilians, July 19.

One witness told HRW that “Hezbollah was active outside the village but not inside it.”
 
Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center Report

Explosives from warehouses inside Dibbin transferred to Hezbollah sabotage teams; these explosives were to be used on key places on roads and junctions. [15]
The Hezbollah defense plan for the eastern sector of southern Lebanon involves both the reporting of fighters to the “infantry center” in Dibbin and the transfer of explosives from “storehouses” in Dibbin, to Hezbollah sappers.[16]
7 rockets fired from within village houses in Marjayoun, 11 within a 200 meter radius of Marjayoun, and 11 within a 500 meter radius of Marjayoun. [17]
 

<This list is quite expansive, and details account after account of Hezbollah deliberately using civilians and civilian infrastructure in its fight against Israel in 2006; click the below link for the full report>

http://www.ngo-monitor.org/article/amnesty_and_hrw_claims_discredited_in_detailed_report

 

3) Anti-Defamation League:

“Hezbollah – a U.S.-designated terrorist organization – has occupied the region south of the Litani River since shortly after Israel’s U.N.-certified withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. Following that withdrawal, Hezbollah moved into the vacated area and established themselves in bunkers throughout civilian areas, despite the presence of UNIFIL observer troops stationed there under the terms of Security Council Resolution 1559.”

“Hezbollah terrorists live among civilians, store their weapons and hold meetings in civilian houses, and fire their rockets into Israel from civilian neighborhoods, in direct violation of international humanitarian law.”

 http://www.adl.org/Israel/advocacy/glossary/Lebanon_War_2006.asp

 

These are just a few source reports that validate my claims.

I surmise that the people reading this post and leaving the above comments are at the core anti-Jew, anti-Israel.

May it be known that a large Jewish presence existed in Palestine long before the UN-mandated creation of the state in 1948 (The first proposal [UN Partition Plan] called for two states, Israel and Palestine, but the Palestinians rejected it, and therefore Israel was created in full); so large a presence that the Jews had multiple political wings and armed militias to protect their individual territories and people.

The growing Jewish population in Palestine can be traced as far back as the 12th century.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel

If this turns into a bitter dispute between conflicting ideologies, as I feel it might, then I will refrain from further posting here.

Read the above mentioned reports if you are truly interested.

 juice

Taliban Lack the Will

Bottom line: The Taliban lack the will to carry out an effective and sustained close-quarters guerilla campaign against U.S., and even NATO, forces.

They certainly are capable: They have the manpower, the munitions and the TERRAIN to do so.

Sure, they’ll hit Afghan police-manned checkpoints and kill them, or send a suicide bomber into a throng of civilians, or detonate an IED as a NATO convey passes, but these are all peripheral aspects of an asymmetrical war.

In order to be viable, these things must be nitched together within the framework of an overall, comprehensive asymmetrical approach that uses an effective engage and displace policy for their front-line fighters as its crux.

Terrain-features of the Afghan-Pakistan border make up a PARADISE for ambushing operations; and through this terrain U.S. forces patrol daily, and yet, until recently (As outlined below), rarely, if ever, come into any kind of close-quarter ambush combat scenario.

Talibani code of guerilla fighting seems to be to engage American outposts with indirect fire and then flee; just like the tactics favored by their ancestors in ancient times (One reason why the soldiers of the Persian Empire were so disturbed when fighting the Greeks; the Greeks fought face-to-face, whereas the Persians, with their Arab contingents, preferred fighting from a distance via arrows and closing only when a victory seemed certain).

The Taliban as of late, and in very isolated incidents, have been ambushing NATO/U.S. patrols (Not many, but they are starting to walk their talk, or at least trying to give that impression).

One confirmed American patrol was caught in an interesting revenge ambush, which I related in a recent post (Came a week after the same unit devastated a Taliban contingent via setting up their own ambush).

A few others confirmed against NATO forces operating with the Afghan Army.

The Talibani ambushes failed.

The encounters were relatively brief and left the Taliban fleeing amidst the bodies of their fallen comrades, while Coalition/Afghan forces sustained little to no casualties.

But the Taliban are least beginning to actually engage in close-quarters combat again.

When first invaded they tried a somewhat conventional approach, in the form of pitched battles in open areas, in which they were obviously wrecked by overwhelming U.S. military prowess.

After that they withdrew to the mountain areas and would ambush U.S. patrols here and there, but the high level of casualties they would sustain, as compared to the small number on behalf of U.S. and Coalition forces, caused them to back away from the face-to-face ambush scenarios and move more toward the lobbing-mortars-from-a-mile-or-two-away-and-then-fleeing tactic.

More of these real ambushes, and by “real” I mean close-quarters, will come with the influx of U.S. combat troops into the South and Eastern portions of Afghanistan this summer, and especially once said forces begin encroaching upon their opium fields.

<For a related post, see “Cowardice of the Enemy”>

juice

Revenge Against American Ambush

UNDER ATTACK Specialist Robert Soto ran for cover last week as his platoon was ambushed in Afghanistan. Across the river, two comrades crouched behind a rock.

At the bottom of one of my reports, “Cowardice of the Enemy,” I included a New York Times article that covered a devastating ambush against Taliban fighters by U.S. soldiers of the Second Platoon, Company B, of the First Battalion, 26th Infantry.

About a week after their triumph, the same platoon was ambushed in an apparent revenge attack (Given the Taliban’s reluctance to engage American forces, even in ambush).

The article is an excellent read, and gives a thorough blow-by-blow report of the Taliban’s revenge ambush, which, while claiming the life of one American, fell drastically short of what they were hoping for.

Very intense article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/20/world/asia/20ambush.html?pagewanted=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

juice

Response to Mr. Head in Stars

The following is my response to Masood Sharif Khan Khattak’s report, the link to which is:

 http://pakistanpal.wordpress.com/2009/04/28/faltering-us-strategy-pii/

My response:

Alright;

“Replacing military activity with developmental activity.”

Bullshit.

The two go hand in hand. First route the Islamo-Fascists that are the core of the Taliban, and then civilian workers move in and create viable institutions.

Peace deals with the Taliban? Are you reading about the SWAT Peace Accord?
You cannot deal with the Taliban, because they are strongarms.

In the accord, the Taliban agreed to disarm, and to cease all violent/military activities, and in return the Pakistani government would allow them to implement their variant of Sharia law in SWAT and neighboring districts. That was the core of the agreement.

What happened?

Within days, hundreds of heavily armed Taliban marched into Buner, raided civilian-based instituations, routed government officials and occupied their houses.

Yes, they listen to peace deals.

As far as the U.S. withdrawing after said “peace deals” are in place, this is completely absurd.

This is the whole reason why the ISI continues to support the Taliban, because they fear another abandonment by the United States similiar to that which occured when the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan.

Because of this, the ISI uses certain elements of the Taliban, along with other non-state militant entities, as a hedge against both India in Kashmir and Afghanistan (A long-standing border dispute exists between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Pakistan sees the Taliban as a viable bulwark against potential Afghani trespasses made against the border).

So, we have “peace talks,” and disengage from operations against the Taliban, who claim so strongly they wish to kill every westerner. That would be great wouldn’t it, because then the Taliban will be able to lay down their arms, large swaths will go back to their home countries, and the natives can tend their fields and flocks, right?

No, they will see the weakness of this American approach, and will begin preparations for further advances.

TALIBAN, and fanatical Arab militant groups in general, at the core level, LISTEN AND RESPOND TO VIOLENCE, not talking.

Your point about Indian influence in Afghanistan is certainly valid, and steps do need to be made to curb that.

And large elements of the ISI DO SUPPORT non-state entities such as certain elements of the Taliban as a hedge against India and Afghanistan, this is in Pakistan’s own strategic interest.

The Obama administration is putting forth a huge increase in diplomatic and civilian activity so as to facilitate a stabilizing of Afghanistan.

But you say we should sit back and let the Taliban spread out eh?

Disrupt Taliban/Al Qaida infrastructure via military strikes and covert activities, then install civilian institutions.

We were building a highway in Afghanistan, something the locals in that area had long wanted. The Taliban came in and told them they’d be killed if they continued to support and work on the project; so out of fear they withdrew from the highway development project.

Had we had a military outpost in or near the village, the Taliban’s access would have been severely limited, and the civilian infrastructure program would have proceeded unchecked.

https://juiceempire.wordpress.com/

juice

Pakistani launches Taliban Offensive (1)

It seems that, while denied by top Pakistani officials, we, the Americans, have successfully persuaded Pakistan to act.

An offensive has been launched yesterday, Sunday, against Taliban elements in the Lower Dir district of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) – a neighbor of the SWAT Valley.

Said offensive is now in its second day, and scattered reports seem to imply it has carried over into other limited areas of the NWFP – although details regarding the expansion of operations are slim at this point.

It seems elements of Pakistan’s Frontier Corps, a smattering of tribal entities pulled together into a cohesive unit numbering about 80,000, are the spearhead of this offensive, and are being supported by air forces and ground-based artillery/armor.

Now, the Pakistanis, to save face of course, and to try to deconstruct the image of them as puppets of Western, namely American, influence, deny that this offensive is a cave-in to American pressure to act.

And yet it’s quite obvious, given the near-perpetual string of high-level talks between America and Pakistan in the past number of weeks (Namely between Admiral Mullen [the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and therefore the highest ranked military officer in America] and what is essentially his counter-part in the Pakistani military, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Chief of Army Staff) that this offensive is a direct response to candid advice given to the Pakistani government/military by the American military and affiliated agencies.

Perhaps our top commanders (Military, CIA, and diplomatic [the pitbull Richard Holbrooke]) have finally painted a more holistic, sweeping picture of Pakistan’s fate if they fail to deal with the newly embolded Taliban (After having the SWAT Peace Accord officially recognized and signed recently) as they methodically sweep from district to district in the NWFP.

And this picture painted by the U.S. would not simply encompass the strategic failure of having more and more of Pakistan under the thumb of Talibani elements, but also would bring into focus other, more indirect matters, such as economic aid given to Pakistan, which President Obama has made clear will from this point on be determined by “benchmarks” of progress (not officially defined as of now) regarding Pakistan’s commitment to fighting radical elements within their country; namely within the NWFP.

I certainly put forth the notion that we are supplying them intelligence and logistal support regarding these most recent strikes against Taliban strongholds in Lower Dir and, most likely, other areas of the NWFP.

One of many questions that come to my mind regarding this most recent offensive: How serious is it?

In scope and expected level of intensity, is this just a show of potential strength by Pakistan to get America to shut up?

I will say it comes at an excellent annual juncture, as the traditional Afghan-Pakistan tribal “fighting season” is about to commence, as crops are harvested and the weather improves. This Pakistani offensive will at the very least disrupt Taliban preparations for the incoming influx of 17,000 American combat troops who are scheduled to arrive, within the coming month or two, in the very Afghani provinces in which Taliban activity has spiked in recent months.

The New York Times is reporting that this offensive is a ” prelude to a larger one against the Taliban in Buner in the coming days, according to a government official who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/world/asia/27pstan.html?_r=1&ref=world

Buner, a neighbor of SWAT, was infiltrated by large numbers of Taliban fighters last week. After “talks” with the Council of Elders for the region, the Taliban agreed to withdraw. That withdrawal is dubious, as reports are still coming in of armed Taliban fighters roaming in at least one border village of Buner.

Other reports from the New York Times claim that, while the initial Taliban forces that invaded and consolidated control over Buner have withdrawn, elements of “local” Taliban entities still maintain control over strategic areas of Buner, and are looting supplies.

Some analysts are saying this Pakistani offensive jeopardizes the SWAT Peace Accord.

Bullshit.

The Accord called for the Taliban to lay down their arms and in return Sharia law would be implemented in the SWAT Valley and neighboring districts.

And then, within days of this being officially signed by the Pakistani president, heavily armed Taliban forces enter Buner. Ha.

Hopefully Pakistan is beginning to see the absurdity in trying to deal with the Taliban.

Time will tell.

 

juice

 

One news outlet detailing the initial progress of the offensive is:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8019518.stm

In this report, the BBC reports:

“A militant commander was among a number of militants killed in gun battles in the Lower Dir district of North West Frontier Province, the military said.”

And also:

“Helicopter gunships and tanks were reportedly used in the fighting.

There was no immediate word of casualties from the Taleban and independent sources have not been able to verify the army’s claims.

Pakistani interior ministry chief Rehman Malik has repeated his call for the Taleban to disarm.

‘Enough is enough,’ told a TV channel on Sunday.

‘We have decided to flush them out. The peace accord was linked to peace. When there is no peace, there is no use for that accord.’

The clashes seem to suggest that the government has finally decided to try to stop the spread of the Taleban across northern Pakistan, the BBC’s Mark Dummett reports from the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.”

New-Wing of American Military

Regarding the plan I documented in a previous post (Wrecking Af-Pak [Phase One]), I’ve come to give more thought to both the strategic and tactical advantages of creating an entirely new wing within the American military infrastructure.

I propose creating a 20,000-strong wing of elite, specialized guerilla units that would operate within the framework of a conventional war spearheaded by traditional American forces.

Say, for instance, a major war with China.

It goes without saying this would involve a heavy advance of traditional conventional methods – methods that … well I’ll just be plain here: American military prowess stands stunningly unmatched by any nation or entity on this planet; due mainly to the resources and effort we’ve poured into military technologies.

But what would it say?

What affect would it have on the minds of a conventional enemy, involved in a major conventional war with the United States, if suddenly there arose large numbers of seemingly independent, well-trained and equipped guerilla units employing terrifyingly unorthodox methods while operating in their rear?

And as stated above, these asymmetrical units would not be merely a nuisance to the Chinese, or whatever power we happened to be conventionally engaged with.

We’re talking tens of thousands of these specially trained American forces, operating WITH our already overwhelming conventional forces.

And as stated in Wrecking Af-Pak, these types of asymmetrical American units would be trained relentlessly and would become the best guerilla fighting entity the world has ever seen.

While operating in the rear of a conventional enemy, they would still be operating within the framework of America’s conventional power against said enemy, in that radio contact and aerial fire support could be called down at a whim.

And this new wing could be employed in any number of scenarios, not just in the confines of a mainly conventional war against another power.

As stated in Af-Pak (Phase One), such units could be used with devastating efficiency against other asymmetrical entities.

Mr. Gates, give it thought.

juice

North Korean Missile Launch

I wonder what would have happened if Obama would have issued orders for a targeted strike against the rocket and launch pad that North Korea had set up in the northwest of its country prior to its launching.

Because to be quiet frank here, that whole spectacle made us look like a bunch of pussies.

Here Clinton is waddling around “Stern response stern response” blah blah blah, and when the missle is fired (and failed, ha, but still showed improvement from the North’s last attempted launch of a long-range missile which blew up, I believe, 20 seconds after take-off) …. nothing happens.

Sure an emergency UN Security Council was called into session, but the members failed, due to our loving friends China and Russia, which will be discussed in due time, to issue even a statement of condemnation against the launch.

“Oh, it was to launch a communications satellite into orbit, oh, oooh, c’mon guys. I’m ova hea Chawy!”

Bullshit.

Even if it was launching a satellite – if a rocket can carry it into orbit, then the technology obviously exists for an intercontinental ballistic missile delivery system.

So it was dual test, and no “stern response” was given.

Now, had we hit that piece before it was even launched, just the rocket while it sat on the launch pad, what kind of a message would that have sent to the world regarding America under our new administration?

They’d probably be saying things like, “Well shit, he may be a democrat, but don’t fuck with Obama.”

Let’s be real here, nobody wants North Korea to have nukes, and recent reports suggest they have four warheads (but are lacking the technology needed to compact them and fit them onto a delivery system, ie: a rocket).

I’ve floated a theory for some time, that I am sure many others share, that China could very well orchestrate these little acts of bravado carried out by North Korea just to see our reaction, while they remain on the sidelines, notebooks in hand.

So let’s say we had hit this piece jon, what would’ve happened?

Would the North snap and begin launching it’s medium range rockets, outfitted with conventional explosives, at South Korea and Japan?

Would they make arrangements for another invasion of the South?

What would the world think?

Some would no doubt condemn our actions, but most, even if only in private, would applaud.

And if the North went high-wire (Kim il Jong Long Eeerie Facial Tissue did have a stroke, afterall, which very well could be a contributing factor to pushing him over the edge if we had actually hit the site prior to launch) and began war with her neighbors – but this is assuming that he has absolute power over his country and its military – that would be a perfect opportunity for us to wreck their shit once and for all.

If he began attacking his neighbors in response to our destroying his little baby project icbm … well, I suppose we could unleash a devastating, and horrifyingly intense, bombardment of the country which, I surmise, once confronted with such an onslaught from both land and sea, would completely and utterly collapse into itself in a matter of days…

And then the issue arises: Will China once again step in to defend the North, to keep it as a buffer state and to keep, as Mao so poetically phrased it, “The American imperialists,” from sitting on their border?

But that was a different time.

The Chinese intervention in the Korean War was prompted by fears held by the Chinaman that the real American objective was to take control of North Korea as phase one of a much larger operation, that would involve using it as a jump-off point to tear right into the grissled heart of China herself (and I say grissled because, well shit, they had just come out of quiet a few decades of bloodletting themselves).

They also feared an onslaught of Korean refugees flooding into their lands and mixing blood with the Chinese.

Their disputes go back centuries and centuries; but from what I’ve gathered, the Chinese do not want the Koreans to fuck their women and have halflings running around, no Korean blood in the China blood, and I’m sure the Koreans feel the same way about there being no China blood in the Korean blood.

Things are much different now:

For starters, if China engages us as it did during the Korean War, it very well could turn into a major world war (If McCarther was given clearance to drop atom bombs on China when it first became known that the great Chinese Wave, “like a wheat field rippling in the wind, as far as the eye could see,” was descending upon our forces as they mopped up operations in the North, China would be nowhere near being a viable and potentially [give them another 15 to 20 years or so] devastating military power now).

Economics – China fights us, their economy tanks, as would ours, us being so inter-connected and what not. And given the current global depression taking place right now anyways, I don’t think they would want to get involved in a massive military engagement with the world’s most powerful military.

I don’t think America wants to get into a protracted war with China right now either; given our issues in the Middle East.

Or, for that matter, as an associate of mine pointed out, the United States does not want to go anywhere near the risk of sparking another war…Not right now, not with the economy the way it is; not with our forces already involved in the Mideast and Southern Asian.

But in a situation regarding military action against a frenzied and aggressive response on behalf of North Korea had we destroyed their missile before it launched, our role would be from the sea, and from the sky.

I believe the current force of American troops in South Korea numbers 30,000.

South Korean forces could spearhead north, supported both logistically and militarily (bombardment, targeted strikes, etc.) by the U.S.

Would China object?

They would certainly object at the prospect of millions of half-starved North Koreans flooding across the border into the heart of China. That would just piss them off.

But perhaps China could even help us in such an endeavor; not necessarily by using their military to spearhead from the north (although that would be painfully ironic), but just to beef up their border and keep the skinny hordes of Koreans from coming over.

Again, this goes back to China’s real involvement regarding North Korea.

If the North in fact is a proxy-type entity that China uses not only as a buffer region, but also to test American responses to acts of belligerency, then China would be very much against a toppling of the Northern Regime.

I wonder how much we’ve beefed up the military of the South since the end of the Korean War.

Bottom line here: The North Korean launch made us look like pussies, and I think we should have balled up and risked it by destroying the missile while it sat fueling up on its launchpad.

Hit that shit franky.

juice

Somali Pirates and Defecation

 

And enter U.S. spotlight: Pirates

Alright, I’m not entirely sure of the pirating dynamics, but it seems this recent bout regarding the captured American captain from the Alabama cargo ship was carried out by perhaps a splinter group of the larger, more organized, and more aware pirating entities.

And by aware I mean – not targetting American-flagged ships.

Is the fact that no American shipping has been attacked by pirates for 200 years coincidental, or deliberate?

The spike in piracy activity off the coast of Somalia these past number of years has yet, until now, hit a vessel with an American flag…I would need to know what percentage of all American merchant craft that travel the globe pass through those waters annually in order to frame a better picture of whether their lack of targetting the U.S. is coincidence or deliberate.

As an American, I would like to think it deliberate; these are businessmen, at the core (albeit robbers), and tend to choose shipping from, oh, say the Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, etc. Countries that are weak.

Well, they’ve hit some Frenchies and the Frenchies wrecked their shit; I’m going to be blunt now.

The Frenchies Commando-stormed three times shipping that had been seized by pirates, quiet aggressively in fact (perhaps a subconscious outpouring of their bitterness and humiliation regarding not only their wreckage in World War II, but the reputation they’ve hauled around ever since; probably became embedded in their genetic code, an evolution of the mind, much as what has happened to the Slav Russians when they, too, were destroyed by German military might [and their destruction would have been complete if it weren’t for the initial aid we sent them, Hitler going completely crazy and going against the advice of the very generals who won for him the stunning victories early in the war and, of course, the devastating invasion of France by the United States and allied contingents]).

Alright.

The Frenchies storming shit and not caring; makes sense, they have something to prove.

Going way off track.

Now the pirates got an American; blah blah, read a news websites for the details, three of the pirates received lethal penetrations of high caliber ammunition and got wrecked. The fourth was already on the USS Bainbridge (One of several U.S. warships in the area that reponded) and was held in custody.

NOW: The leaders of the major pirating rackets operating out of the coast of Somalia are no doubt DEFECATING into their pants right now as I write…And you know why?

First:

The USS Boxer sits just off-shore, and this fine amphibious assault ship contains an on-board contingent of 2,000 Marines whose job it is to storm beach-heads in lightning quick assaults on unsuspecting areas – sort of like a quick-response force.

Now while I doubt we’ll actually land troops at these pirate port strongholds, they don’t know that. All they know is they’ve pissed off America and are probably asking themselves what the fuck is going to happen.

What they DO know is they’ve just entered an arena that, until now, we’ve (I will now simply say ‘we’ as in America, because as stated above, I’m an American) largely kept to the sidelines while negotiations between pirates and OTHER nations and ship owners took place. Now it has become personal…Don’t tug on superman’s cape, as one U.S. diplomat told a representative of some Islamic fanatical group based in Lebanon, although I don’t believe it was Hezbollah…

Second:

It appears we’ve conducted a combination of psych-ops and baiting for the Somalis at one of their port-village pirating bastions.

On Saturday afternoon, two United States helicopter gunships rode over and hovered above the pirate stronghold of Harardhere, along the Somali coast, according to a New York Times affiliated newspaper.

One of these helicopters LANDED for about 10 minutes, terrifying the locals and scattering all the little animals so common in Somalian villages.

“‘I have no idea what is happening,’ said Laila Arale, a local farmer who sent her sons to sleep elsewhere Sunday night, fearing that the United States might attack Somalia from the air. ‘I’m scared.'”

Perhaps we were trying to get them to fire on us? Perhaps we just wanted to fuck with them outright?

Alright then. But what about the pirate leaders…are they scared?

I’m sure they’re certainly pissed.

I envision several major piracy ventures in operation along the Somali coast, akin to perhaps families in an Italian mafia setting, and I bet the pirates who tried to take the American-flagged ship were probably running their own little rag-tag splinter group.

I would imagine the big boys running the major pirating outfits probably have standing orders not to attack American shipping, and will either kill the pirates affilitated with this smaller operation that went so disastrously awry (for bringing the heat down on their otherwise lucrative operations), or deliver some kind of punitive action against them, because now the HEAT is on frank.

This could turn out to be nothing. If we landed troops, I doubt these pirates would fight – they want money, not war.

They’re probably hiding all their weaponry and pirating paraphernalia now, and will dissolve into the population if any such landing were to occur, which as stated above, I doubt will happen.

As far as an aerial bombing campaign: What exists in Somalia that can be destroyed?

There is an ever-increasing al-Qaida presence in the country, and yes SAD (Special Activities Division; Wiki it) is already involved regarding that.

Bottom Line:

The Somali’s who live in these coastal pirate villages, and the pirates themselves, are dropping defecates, and will continue to do so for at least a few more days, until it becomes clear what we’re going to do, which is probably nothing.

Nonetheless, having the Boxer sitting out there on the horizon, coupled with the Gunships flying over these villages – they’re certainly concerned, although the brigand leaders are putting up a tough exterior “We will avenge their deaths,” speaking of the pirates that were wrecked, blah blah.

12 hours of intense, perpetual American aerial bombardment and they’d be done: Either dead, or psychologically devastated for the rest of their lives.

They’ve seized more shipping in the past 24-hours…but their targets: Greece, Lebanon, what are these shit-poor weak countries going to do?

Regarding the attack on the U.S. ship:

Time will tell…They boarded an un-armed American vessel, the first such instance in 200 years…One of the pirates got an ice-pick through the hand, the ship was re-taken by the all-American crew, the pirates were left with the captain and took the lifeboat, and all but one were eventually torn through by SEAL snipers.

200 years.

Welcome back.

juice